Oil-producing states in the Global South adopt different strategies to influence and control their oil sectors. Why does an oil-producing state choose one approach over others? Why does a state change its approach?
This PhD dissertation argues that a government’s ideological orientation and a country’s oil balance combine in different ways to generate an oil-sector strategy that is either closed, mixed or open. While the variable of orientation represents the degree to which the government wants to intervene in the economy, the variable of oil balance constrains, facilitates or moderates a government’s preferred oilsector strategy, depending on the interaction effects that occur from the specific aligning of these independent variables.
This argument emerged inductively from intensive study of ‘big’ Global South oil-producing countries of Brazil, China and Mexico,
This research presents four key findings. First, the strategy that immediately follows oil-sector nationalization sets the parameters for politically acceptable oil-related policies going forward. This original strategy often has lasting effects. Second, these constraints allow for change to occur but often limit the extent of that change. Third, a radical change in a government’s orientation or oil balance opens space for major change to an oil-sector strategy. Fourth, the new strategy that comes after this critical juncture sets new parameters for oil policy.